NBA Basketball: A New Season Chasing the Celtics on Paper!

Last week the NBA basketball season started with the Boston Celtics beginning where they left off in last seasons Finals against the Lakers - by winning! Their calm and skilful dismantling of LeBron James' Cleveland Cavaliers shows that the "Big Three" of Pierce, Garnett, and Ray Allen are ready to fight for another title in the 2008-2009 season. But are there any other pretenders to the crown, or will champions of recent years make their way back into contention?

I've been looking at the NBA rosters on paper. When you compare their respective squads, how much they are being paid, and how high players were drafted, it's very interesting to start a new season wondering whether a team predominantly comprised of lower-tier draft picks and undrafted players, such as the Golden State Warriors, has any ambition or likelihood to make it to the post-season? Probably not! But high spending doesn't automatically equal success (just look at the New York Knicks!), nor does having a roster crammed with high draft picks, because in actual fact, it's the teams that continually finish bottom of their divisions that annually take the best of the college crop. The future may look bright (on paper!) for the likes of the Oklahoma City Thunder (the new name for the relocated Seattle Supersonics), Chicago Bulls, or Portland Trailblazers, but how successful will their young "stars" be in the present?

NBA executives may at this very moment be poring over data and analysing the success of the Boston Celtics last season, trying to replicate their business model in the way that NFL teams labour to reproduce the annual winning formula of the New England Patriots. Maybe it's actually really simple?! You position your NBA team as one of the league's worst, you ditch expensive contracts, wait around for a nice free agent crop, persuade a couple of them to come and earn a fat pay packet, and hope they gel together with a bench-load of humble "team-orientated" guys who don't mind being paid a fraction of the superstars' earnings. It also helps if the veteran stars in question have languished on struggling teams for their entire careers and actually DO care about winning the Championship!

As the 2008-2009 season begins, Boston stand to spend nearly 81 million dollars on players' salaries (up from over 74 million in 2007-2008). These numbers come courtesy of ESPN's data, indicating that Kevin Garnett will receive $24,751,934, Ray Allen will get $18,388,430, and long-time loyal Celtic, Paul Pierce, will pick up $18,077,903. Garnett's wages equate to over 30% of the team's total salary, and when you factor in Pierce, Allen, and Boston's other two starting players, point guard Rajon Rondo and center Kendrick Perkins, their combined $67,112,227 mean they share a whopping 83% of the Celtics player purse. As much as this terrific starting lineup led Boston to NBA glory, without their very deep bench of veteran talent taking comparatively low salaries, their would not have been a chunky diamond- and-emerald-encrusted ring for every bling-hungry oversized hand at the season opener this week! With the completion of the Allen Iverson to Detroit for Chauncey Billups and Antonio McDyess to Denver trade, both teams have also moved around their starting line-ups to produce a similar ratio of starting salaries to bench pay (between 80-85%).

So which teams look good on paper, according to the draft credentials of their players? And which players are taking home all of the pay? Here's a look at the NBA by the numbers, before a ball even gets anywhere near a hoop! Remember this is entirely theoretical! We know from experience that it often takes only one great player, surrounded by passionate teammates, to beat teams filled with stars playing only for themselves.

The NBA's best starting five would appear to be the Denver Nuggets! As a result of trading away #1 pick, Allen Iverson, in exchange for a #3 pick, Chauncey Billups, this sent undrafted PG Anthony Carter to the bench, returning #18 pick, shooting guard JR Smith to the Nuggets starting 5. So the draft calibre of their line-up works out as follows:

Point Guard - Chauncey Billups #3
Shooting Guard - JR Smith #18
Small Forward - Carmelo Anthony #3
Power Forward - Kenyon Martin #1
Center - Nene Hilario #7

Average draft position of starting line-up: #6.4

The only team close to this average is the Atlanta Hawks! They have two #2 draft picks, a #3, a #10, and a #17 in their starting five. For those of you unfamiliar with the underachieving Hawks, those players are:

Point Guard - Mike Bibby
Shooting Guard - Joe Johnson
Small Forward - Marvin Williams
Power Forward - Josh Smith
Center - Al Horford

Their average draft position works out as pick number 6.8. Fairly pointless to note this, you might think, but as I said above, on paper a team really can look amazing but really not play as well as their earlier reputations might suggest. When you follow the same analysis, the starting line-up ranked 29th in the NBA for draft pedigree is the San Antonio Spurs. Their starters include future Hall of Famer, Tim Duncan (a #1 pick), two who were drafted at #21 and #28, and two who were not drafted at all. Michael Finley has been a long-standing top quality NBA player, and Tony Parker is an All-Star point guard! Center Fabricio Oberto is definitely not David Robinson, but he's a decent big body, and undrafted Small Forward, Bruce Bowen, is consistently ranked as one of the NBA's top defensive players. On paper they're not supposed to be that good, but come game-time and it's no accident that the Spurs win more often than they lose.

Off the bench, the roster that is apparently rich in talent is the Portland Trailblazers. They have five Top 10 draft picks who are currently not able to break in to the starting rotation! Similarly the Chicago Bulls have an equally rich group of substitutes. At the other end of the spectrum, it's the Atlanta Hawks who have the poorest reserves, as five were not drafted and the other five went between picks 11 and 42.

A look around the NBA reveals just how many players selected in the Top 10 of the draft they have on their rosters:

1. 8 picks - Portland Trailblazers (including #1 Center, Greg Oden)
2. 8 picks - Chicago Bulls (including #1 Point Guard, Derrick Rose)
3. 7 picks - New Jersey Nets (including #5, All-Star Vince Carter)
4. 6 picks - Dallas Mavericks (including #2, All-Star Jason Kidd)
5. 6 picks - Oklahoma City Thunder (including #2, Kevin Durant)
6. 5 picks - Charlotte Bobcats (including #2, Emeka Okakor)
7. 5 picks - LA Clippers (including #3, Point Guard, Baron Davis)
8. 5 picks - Denver Nuggets (including #1 picks, Allen Iverson & Kenyon Martin)
9. 5 picks - Memphis Grizzlies (including #3 Shooting Guard, OJ Mayo)
10. 5 picks - Detroit Pistons (including #3, Chauncey Billups)
11. 4 picks - Atlanta Hawks (including #2 Point Guard, Mike Bibby)
12. 4 picks - Philadelphia 76ers (including #1, Elton Brand)
13. 4 picks - LA Lakers (including #3 Power Forward, Pau Gasol)
14. 4 picks - Boston Celtics (including #5, Kevin Garnett)
15. 4 picks - New York Knicks (including #4 Center, Eddy Curry)
16. 4 picks - Minnesota Timberwolves (including #5, Mike Miller)
17. 4 picks - Houston Rockets (including #1 Center, Yao Ming)
18. 4 picks - Miami Heat (including #2, Power Forward, Michael Beasley)
19. 3 picks - Washington Wizards (including #4, Antawn Jamison)
20. 3 picks - Milwaukee Bucks (including #1 Center, Andrew Bogut)
21. 3 picks - Orlando Magic (including #1 Center, Dwight Howard)
22. 3 picks - Phoenix Suns (including #1 Center, Shaquille O'Neal)
23. 3 picks - Cleveland Cavaliers (including #1 Forward, LeBron James)
24. 2 picks - Indiana Pacers (including #3 Guard, Mike Dunleavy)
25. 2 picks - New Orleans Hornets (including #2, Tyson Chandler)
26. 2 picks - Toronto Raptors (including #4 Power Forward, Chris Bosh)
27. 2 picks - San Antonio Spurs (including #1 Forward, Tim Duncan)
28. 2 picks - Sacramento Kings (including #5 Forward, Shelden Williams)
29. 1 pick - Utah Jazz (USA Olympian, Point Guard Deron Williams)
30. 1 pick - Golden State Warriors (reserve Forward, Brandan Wright)

Teams differ on the composition of their rosters, how many high draft picks mix with undrafted or lower-salaried veterans. They differ in the relative percentages of salary devoted to starting fives versus their bench players. It's not really clear what the winning combination is!

To be continued ......... this post will soon include more stats about salaries, highest paid, overpaid, and value starters .....